Last week we highlighted resilience in retail store spending over the first half of the year amid numerous challenges. This edition of the Twenty-Four delves into sales in the restaurant and bar industry, adjusting for both population growth and inflation.

Recently released data from Statistics Canada shows that total revenues at food and drinking establishments in Alberta saw a solid 5.4% increase during the first half of the year, reaching a record $3.3 billion in the second quarter.  

While this growth is commendable, it's not entirely surprising given Alberta's record population growth since 2023.

After leveling off in early 2023, per capita sales began to rise in Q4 2024, reaching a record high in Q2 2025. On average, an Albertan spent $654 at restaurants and bars in the second quarter, a 4.1% increase from last year and higher than the $596 average spent by Canadians elsewhere. This aligns with the known higher spending patterns of Albertans.  

However, population isn’t the only driver. Average prices for food purchased at restaurants have risen by 5.9% in 2023, 3.6% in 2024, and another 0.9% so far this year. Taking out these price changes, real per capita sales* have shown a downward trend since mid-2023, coinciding with accelerated population growth. By the close of 2024, these sales were 6.3% lower than in Q1 2023 and are still below pre-pandemic levels (the same pattern is observed nationally).

Encouragingly for the industry, per capita real restaurant sales have improved this year, increasing by 1.8% compared to the first half of last year.

In other words, while sales have struggled to keep up with population and inflation since the pandemic, the sector has demonstrated encouraging progress this year. Falling interest rates, easing inflationary pressures, and the increased popularity of staycations and buying local amid trade tensions with the U.S. are likely contributing to this recent trend.

Moving forward, measures such as easing shelter cost pressures and the removal of most counter-tariffs on U.S. imports are expected to help keep inflationary pressures in check. While population growth is slowing, heightened tourism activity and a greater local spending propensity should help keep revenues near current levels through the second half of the year.

*Data has been adjusted for seasonal variation

Answer to the previous trivia question: The Google web page was launched in 1998.

Today’s trivia question: When did McDonald’s add the Filet-O-Fish to its nationwide U.S. menu?