Putting a positive spin on Gordon Gekko’s iconic line in “Wall Street,” growth is good. And grow is what Canada’s economy did to start the year.

It feels like a lifetime ago given everything that has happened since the end of 2025, but new data released by Statistics Canada today show that Canada’s real GDP grew by 0.1% in January (month-to-month change). The expansion followed a 0.2% increase in December and, although still not very strong, managed to beat Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate of no growth at all.

Up by 1.6%, the oil and gas extraction sector was a key driver of the positive reading in January. Held back in part by longer-than-normal shutdowns at several major Ontario auto plants to complete retooling and maintenance, Canada’s manufacturing output decreased by 1.4%.

Retail trade and finance posted increases while wholesale trade and transportation and warehousing did the opposite, with the end result essentially no change in the overall output of the services-producing sector.

With the advance estimate from Statistics Canada pointing to a real GDP increase of 0.2% in February, the first quarter may end up being a period of positive, albeit still weak, growth. This will give the Bank of Canada a little more time to consider the impacts of the Iran war on inflation and the potential need for tighter monetary policy to address it.

Given the impact of the war, our forecast for Canada’s annual GDP to post an increase of 1.3% this year still holds. It could be a lot better, but it’s growth, so we’ll take it.  

Answer to the previous trivia question: McDonald’s restaurants introduced the Big Mac in 1968.

Today’s trivia question: Joni Mitchell just won a Lifetime Achievement Award at the 2026 Junos. In what town in Alberta was she born?