Chart of the Week: Naturally speaking - When will deaths exceed births in Canada?

In the demography world, the focus these days is on the sharp pullback in population growth in Canada caused by declines in international migration. That reflects a shift in federal immigration policy aimed at reducing the number of non-permanent residents in Canada.

The lesser told story is what happens without international migration. With an aging population and falling fertility rates, Canada’s population is poised to start declining naturally - that is deaths will soon begin to exceed births each year.

To illustrate, new population projections released earlier this week by Statistics Canada give us 10 scenarios. In all but two of these scenarios, deaths start exceeding births no later than 2029 and continue to do so out to the end of the projection period in 2075. In only two scenarios (high-growth and slow-aging) does the population grow by natural increase.

To get us closer to what’s likely, let’s focus on the M2 medium-growth scenario - it closely mirrors the other medium-growth scenarios for natural increase. In the M2 scenario, natural decline is -3,400 by 2029 and -78,400 by 2050.