Chart of the Week: Canada’s population shrinks, but there’s a regional twist

It’s official. Canada saw its first year-over-year population decline on record in the final quarter of 2025, dating all the way back to 1947.

The big swing has come from declines in the non-permanent resident (NPR) population, along with a slowdown in permanent resident admissions. Natural increase (births minus deaths) was marginally positive for the year, but in the fourth quarter was negative for the first time on record outside the pandemic period.

As for Alberta, its population is slowing, but still growing. For the second straight quarter, Alberta was the only province to record a quarterly population gain.

What’s going on in Alberta? It’s partly due to smaller NPR outflows, but the more persistent driver has been interprovincial migration. While slowing, it has been a net positive for 18 consecutive quarters. That’s closing in on the 19 quarter streak of the 2010-2015 period, which was long, but not the longest on record). But unlike then, this time around it hasn’t been driven by an energy boom.